A weekly round-up of tanker and dry bulk market (Oct 25, 2024)

This report is produced by the Baltic Exchange.

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Capesize

The Capesize market faced a persistent downturn this week, with the Baltic 5TC declining daily to end at US$15,395, down US$2,779 from Monday. In the Pacific, limited mining demand early in the week led to a softening in the C5 route, hindered by a growing tonnage list. However, there were slight rate improvements that surfaced midweek, supported by stronger FFA market. Meanwhile, the South Brazil and West Africa to China markets saw varied activity, with C3 bids around the low US$20s, although by the end of the week a US$20.85 fixture emerged on C3, showing some mixed resilience. The North Atlantic experienced significant pressure, with both transatlantic and fronthaul routes recording considerable declines, particularly impacting the C9 index, which saw notable dips. By week’s end, some fresh fronthaul cargo from EC Canada hinted at potential demand recovery in an otherwise subdued Atlantic basin.

Panamax

This week saw continued downward pressure across the market, with both the Atlantic and Pacific basins struggling to gain momentum. Early in the week, both regions experienced growing tonnage lists, leading to rate declines, particularly in the Pacific. The P5TC index dropped steadily, reaching US$10,945 by Friday.

In the Atlantic, weak cargo availability and increasing vessel supply contributed to sliding rates. Although there was some grain activity from East Coast South America (ECSA), it failed to halt the downward trend, with rates at around US$12,750 for a trip redelivery Singapore-Japan range. Meanwhile, the Pacific showed more resilience, supported by consistent demand for Indonesian routes with rates around US$12,000 all week. By midweek, the market appeared to be searching for a floor, with some resistance from Owners in the East, while the North Atlantic remained particularly fragile. Despite a slight increase in grain activity towards the end of the week overall sentiment remained cautious, and further rate erosion is possible without an increase in cargo volumes.

There was some period activity with an 82,000-dwt fixed for 4/6 months at US$14,500 and another reported fixed for 5/7 months at US$15,000.

Ultramax/Supramax

It was a highly positional week. Those with vessels available in the US Gulf likely fared the best, as rates remained relatively strong, with Ultramax sizes seeing fronthaul rates in the mid US$20,000s. However, the South Atlantic was a rather muted affair with tonnage availability growing and limited fresh enquiry. A 56,000-dwt vessel was fixed at around US$12,500-US$13,000, plus a ballast bonus of US$250,000-US$300,000 for a fronthaul. Slightly better demand was noted from the Continent, with increased scrap demand; a 60,000-dwt reported fixed delivery Antwerp, heading to the East Mediterranean at US$21,000. In contrast, the Asian arena faced downward pressure, as tonnage supply exceeded demand in both the northern and southern regions. A 56,000-dwt fixed delivery Koh Sichang, making a trip via Indonesia redelivery in China at US$13,000. Further north, a 63,000-dwt fixed delivery Japan, undertaking a North Pacific round trip with redelivery to Southeast Asia in the very low US$13,000s. The Indian market appeared patchy, with a 56,000-dwt vessel fixed delivery EC India for a trip to China at US$8,750.

Handysize

Generally, the market has seen a mixed affair this week. In the Continent and Mediterranean regions, there is a sense of stability, supported by a healthy cargo book especially increasing scrap orders. A 39,000-dwt open Rotterdam 21 Oct reported fixed delivery Skaw via Mukran for a trip redelivery Conakry with grains at US$13,000. In the U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic region, market fundamentals remained strong and contributes a positive outlook with rates were edging slightly higher. A 38,000-dwt reported fixed for delivery South West Pass to redelivery West Coast South America at US$17,500. A 40,000-dwt open Barranquilla was fixed delivery aps Santa Marta to redelivery Spain with coal at US$15,000. Meanwhile, the Pacific market was showing softer sentiment due to increasing tonnage and limited cargo availability from the North Pacific and Australia. A 38,000-dwt open Qingdao was fixed via South East Asia to Continent / Baltic with steels at US$13,800 for first 70 days than US$16,000. On the period side, sources indicate that inquiry was generally limited this week, with operators showing reluctance to take on risks as we move into Q1.

Clean

LR2

LR2’s in the MEG came back under downward pressure this week, with several reports of demand easing up. TC1 dropped 13.05 points to WS120.28 mark (A Baltic TCE of around US$22,000 / day). Meanwhile, a run to the UK-Continent on TC20 shed around US$231,000 of its value to the US$3.96m level, with the round trip TCE around the US$36,000 / day mark via Suez.

West of Suez, Mediterranean/East LR2’s despite a dormant market, saw a US$16,667 improvement on TC15 taking the index up to US$2.9m.

LR1

In the MEG, LR1’s were also put under pressure this week after starting positively. The TC5 index was ultimately squashed by 10 points to WS128.13 and similarly for a trip to the UK-Continent on TC8, dipped by US$213,000 to US$3.35m.

On the UK- Continent, TC16 remained flat again with the index floating around the WS108-109 level.

MR

MEG MR’s came under the same pressure that the LR’s did this week. The TC17 run as a result dipped 31.42 points to WS204.29.

UK-Continent MR’s saw enough activity to keep the indices bubbling along at the same levels. TC2 has held in the WS90-95 region with TC19 also floating around WS125-130 level.

USG MR’s trajectory slowed and plateaued this week. TC14’s overall value lost 6.07 points to WS129.29 and TC18 weakened by 9.64 points to WS174.29. Meanwhile a run to the Caribbean on TC21 sunk back was cut down 22% to US$394,286 this impacted the TCE for the run by 64% and is now only US$3,900/day on a Baltic description round trip.

The MR Atlantic Triangulation Basket TCE dropped from US$18,165 to US$15,669.

Handymax

In the Mediterranean, Handymax’s were pushed down later in the week after holding out in the mid WS150’s for a few days, the TC6 index came down to WS148.61 (-11.11). Up on the UK-Continent, the TC23 index remained stable at the high WS130’s to low WS140’s all week.

VLCC

The VLCC market held at the levels reported last week in the East, while a mixed reaction was seen in the Atlantic. The 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China (TD3C) trip remained at the WS57 level which gives a daily round-trip TCE of about US$35,100 basis the Baltic Exchange’s vessel description.

In the Atlantic market, the rate for 260,000 mt West Africa/China (TD15) ended the week 1 point up at WS62.83 (corresponding to a round voyage TCE of US$41,447 per day), and the rate for 270,000 mt US Gulf/China (TD22) dropped by US$162,500 to close the week at US$8,032,500 (a daily round trip TCE of US$38,581), although at time of writing US$8,000,000 is reported to be on subjects for a trip the South Korea.

Suezmax

Suezmax rates slipped globally this week. In West Africa, the 130,000 mt Nigeria/UK Continent voyage (TD20) eased by a point to WS97.89, meaning a daily round-trip TCE of US$36,675. The TD27 route (Guyana to UK Continent basis 130,000 mt), fell by 4 points to WS95.56, which translates into a daily round trip TCE of US$35,092 basis discharge in Rotterdam. For the TD6 route of 135,000 mt CPC/Med, the charterers were able to gain a little more control, and the rate slid 2 points to WS112.65 (showing a daily TCE of US$42,798 round-trip). In the Middle East, the rate for the TD23 route of140,000 mt Middle East Gulf to the Mediterranean (via the Suez Canal) is assessed 3 points lower than a week ago at WS101.94.

Aframax

In the North Sea, the rate for the 80,000 mt Cross-UK Continent (TD7) firmed by 19 points to the WS145 mark (giving a daily round-trip TCE of just over US$44,300 basis Hound Point to Wilhelmshaven).

In the Mediterranean market, the rate for 80,000 mt Cross-Mediterranean (TD19) steadily fell by 11 points over the week to WS165.22 (basis Ceyhan to Lavera, that shows a daily round trip TCE of about US$46,961).

Across the Atlantic, the market continues to decline. Rates for the 70,000 mt East Coast Mexico/US Gulf (TD26) route and the 70,000 mt Covenas/US Gulf (TD9) route fell about 20 points each to the WS151 level, showing a daily round-trip TCE of about US$33,800 and US$30,800, respectively. The rate for the trans-Atlantic route of 70,000 mt US Gulf/UK Continent (TD25) was reduced by 14 points to WS169.17 (a round trip TCE basis Houston/Rotterdam of US$39,203 per day), which, for the time-being, should keep ballasters from Europe out of the equation.

LNG

Bearish winter rates are hampering brokers wishes for a rebound prior the end of Q4. With fixtures reported but at ever lower rates there is very little optimism in the LNG Spot market. Both ships and all three routes dropped again with some of the levels published the lowest this year.

BLNG1 Aus-Japan on the 160cbm TFDE ship fell by US$6087 to US$24,913 while the 174cbm 2-stroke dropped US$3687 to US$41,813. BLNG2 Houston-Cont published at US$20,901 on the 174cbm 2-stroke, and though there was a fixture recently reported done from US-Cont at US$17,500 a lower rate may not be repeated. The 160cbm TFDE dropped US$5186 to US$13,714. The BLNG3 Houston-Japan index suffered a tough week with low liquidity and little interest in going intra-basin rates fell by US$7614 and US$8923 on the 174cbm and 160cbm respectively. This gave the index a final publication of US$37,584 for the 2-stroke with the TFDE published at US$25,777.

Period remains muted with no interest in multi month discussions while the spot market and indeed winter market overall remains very low. Our 6-month period was down by US$12,650 to US$53,550 while the 1-year term dropped US$5000 to US$57,625 and the 3-year saw the smallest loss at only US$1650 to US$74,700.

LPG

For BLPG1 Ras Tanura-Chiba, there have been some fixtures reported in the market, but the sentiment has still been riding lower. Rates have fallen again, though they have begun to stabilise with the end of the week remaining completely flat. A drop of US$9.736 gave a closing publication price of US$47.167 and a daily TCE earning equivalent of US$26,677.

Across the Atlantic the Baltic BLPG3 Houston-Chiba saw several ships placed on subjects, rates fell though for most of the week they remained, like in the East, quite stable. With a drop of US$6.667 BLPG3 published at the close with US$106.833 and a daily TCE of US$40.273, while BLPG2 Houston-Flushing remained flat seeing no real enquiry, and falling US$1.5 to a close of US$59.25 gave a daily TCE earning equivalent of US$57,842.

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